Econometric risk analysis, income inequality estimation, and actuarial tail-loss modeling frequently employ Generalized Log-Logistic (GLL) distributions to capture heavy skewness and kurtosis. The Jenkins-Cowell Generalized Log-Logistic Type LXXXIX (Type 89) formulation incorporates three distinct shape and asymmetry parameters to evaluate lower-tail income deciles under the Shorrocks downward-mobility inequality framework. In modern Microsoft Excel, dynamic array functions—specifically LAMBDA, VSTACK, MAP, and LET—allow quantitative analysts to build fully vectorised, real-time distributional engines without writing legacy VBA macros. This tutorial demonstrates how to formulate, compute, and tabulate a Shorrocks asymmetric decile downside Jenkins-Cowell GLL Type LXXXIX model in Excel.
Mathematical Foundations: Jenkins-Cowell GLL Type LXXXIX
The cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the Jenkins-Cowell Generalized Log-Logistic Type LXXXIX distribution is expressed as:
F(x; alpha, beta, gamma) = 1 - (1 + beta * (x / alpha)^gamma)^(-1 / beta)
where `alpha > 0` is the scale parameter, `gamma > 0` governs unimodal tail thickness, and `beta > 0` captures downside tail inequality. The quantile function (inverse CDF) yields the income threshold corresponding to decile probability `p`:
Q(p; alpha, beta, gamma) = alpha * (((1 - p)^(-beta) - 1) / beta)^(1 / gamma)
To evaluate Shorrocks asymmetric downside mobility across the bottom deciles (`p in {0.10, 0.20, dots, 0.50}`), analysts compute the downward expected shortfall and the ratio of lower-decile cumulative share to the median benchmark.
Constructing the Reusable LAMBDA Function in Excel
Using Excel’s Name Manager (Ctrl + F3), define a reusable custom function named GLL89_QUANTILE:
=LAMBDA(p, alpha, beta, gamma,
LET(
term, ((1 - p)^(-beta) - 1) / beta,
alpha * (term^(1 / gamma))
)
)
This dynamic function evaluates the exact inverse cumulative quantile for any arbitrary decile probability or array of deciles.
Generating Asymmetric Deciles with VSTACK and LET
To produce an automated 10-decile distribution summary table with dynamic headers and summary metrics in a single worksheet cell, enter the following vectorised formula:
=LET(
alpha, B2,
beta, B3,
gamma, B4,
p_seq, SEQUENCE(10, 1, 0.1, 0.1),
quantiles, MAP(p_seq, LAMBDA(p, GLL89_QUANTILE(p, alpha, beta, gamma))),
shorrocks_downside, MAP(quantiles, LAMBDA(q, q / INDEX(quantiles, 5))),
headers, HSTACK("Decile (p)", "Quantile Threshold Q(p)", "Shorrocks Downside Ratio"),
data_rows, HSTACK(p_seq, quantiles, shorrocks_downside),
VSTACK(headers, data_rows)
)
Here, cell B2 holds `alpha` (e.g., 50000), B3 holds `beta` (e.g., 0.85), and B4 holds `gamma` (e.g., 1.45). The formula immediately spills 11 rows and 3 columns containing exact thresholds and downside inequality indices.
Visualising Downside Inequality in Dynamic Excel Charts
Once the formula spills the summary table, build an accompanying visual chart:
- Select the spilled range using the spilled array operator (e.g.,
=D2#). - Navigate to the Insert ribbon tab and choose Scatter with Smooth Lines.
- Configure the horizontal axis to display decile values (0.1 through 1.0) and the vertical axis for income quantiles.
- Add an auxiliary horizontal threshold line representing median income (Decile 5) to highlight the asymmetric downward curve characteristic of the Type LXXXIX distribution.
Parameter Calibration and Sensitivity Reference
| Parameter | Economic Interpretation | Standard Range | Impact on Lower Tail Deciles |
|---|---|---|---|
alpha |
Scale / median income reference | 10,000 to 100,000 | Uniformly shifts distribution curve along X-axis |
beta |
Downside inequality asymmetry | 0.20 to 1.80 | Higher values stretch lower decile gaps (steeper shortfall) |
gamma |
Tail shape and curvature | 1.10 to 3.50 | Controls kurtosis and asymptotic tail tapering |
Leveraging VSTACK, MAP, and LAMBDA transforms Microsoft Excel into an agile computational platform for sophisticated inequality and distribution modeling.